The latest forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) show that East Asia and the Pacific remain largely shielded from global inflationary pressures.

Among the 15 economies that form the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement, only two are expected to suffer double-digit inflation this year and eight are forecast to record increases of less than five percent.

In its annual World Economic Outlook released in Washington Tuesday, the IMF said the increase in global consumer prices was projected to fall from 8.7 percent last year to 7.0 percent this year to reflect lower food and energy prices.

The IMF warned that the war in Ukraine "could intensify and lead to more food and energy price spikes, pushing inflation up” and that core inflation excluding food and energy “could turn out to be more persistent than anticipated.”

For the time being, however, the inflation outlook among RCEP economies is mostly subdued.

Consumer prices are forecast to rise 2.0 percent this year in both Brunei and China, 2.7 percent in Japan, 2.8 percent in Thailand, 2.9 percent in Malaysia, 3.0 percent in Cambodia, 3.5 percent in South Korea and 4.4 percent in Indonesia.

The inflation outlook is higher in other economies, with prices projected to climb 5.0 percent in Vietnam, 5.3 percent in Australia, 5.5 percent in New Zealand, 5.8 percent in Singapore and 6.3 percent in the Philippines.

The IMF forecasts double-digit increases of 14.2 percent in Myanmar and 15.1 percent in Laos, albeit down from last year, especially in the case of Laos where sharp declines in the local currency inflated prices for imported goods.

For advanced economies (including Australia, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand and Singapore), inflation is projected at 4.7 percent this year compared with 8.6 percent in emerging and developing economies.

But for emerging and developing Asia, the inflation forecast is only 3.4 percent. In other regions, double-digit inflation is projected, especially in emerging and developing Europe where consumer prices are expected to skyrocket 19.7 percent this year.

RCEP took effect last year as the world’s largest trade agreement.

Source: Agence Kampuchea Presse